Steady job growth and lower rates could fuel a sales surge ahead. See NAR’s 2026 housing forecast.
Real estate professionals may finally see a long-awaited surge in activity in 2026, with home sales poised for a potential double-digit jump.
Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of REALTORS®, is forecasting a 14% nationwide increase with home sales for 2026, following 2025’s stagnating levels. New-home sales are also projected to rise 5% next year.
“Next year is really the year that we will see a measurable increase in sales,” Yun told attendees Friday at the Residential Economic Issues and Trends Forum during NAR NXT, The REALTOR® Experience, in Houston.
Rising sales won’t come at the expense of price stability either: “Home prices nationwide are in no danger of declining,” he said. NAR expects prices to climb 4% in 2026, supported by job growth and persistent supply shortages.
Early Momentum: Jobs, Mortgage Applications and Builder Activity
The groundwork for a rebound may already be forming. Mortgage applications are trending higher, job gains remain steady, homebuilders continue to add supply, and the record-breaking 43-day government shutdown—that could have delayed some recent home sales—is finally over, Yun said.
“Mortgage applications have been consistently above last year, implying that people’s desire to enter the market has been consistently positive,” Yun said. In the latest week, mortgage applications for home purchases surged 31% higher compared to a year ago, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported.
Mortgage Rates: A Slow Drift Downward
Mortgage rates remain one of the biggest constraints for buyers. After sitting around 7% at the beginning of the year, the 30-year fixed rate averaged 6.24% this week, according to Freddie Mac.
Yun expects gradual improvement ahead. “As we go into next year, the mortgage rate will be a little bit better,” Yun said. “It’s not going to be a big decline, but it will be a modest decline that will improve affordability.”
He forecasts rates to average around 6% in 2026, down from a roughly 6.7% overall average for this year.
While the Federal Reserve has initiated rate cuts, Yun cautioned mortgage rates are influenced by a wide mix of factors—including inflation, Treasury yields and federal borrowing—so buyers shouldn’t bet on 3% rates to return. Still, even minor decreases in mortgage rates could unlock substantial buyer activity, he said.
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Originally Posted to the NAR website on 11/15/25 by Melissa Dittmann Tracey.